Sales in the European Semiconductor Distribution Market fell by 3.8% to 1.86 Billion Euro in Q4 2020, show the latest figures from DMASS. The full year ended on sales of 7.72 Billion Euro, down 12.4%.
Markit Economics has released its December “flash” PMIs:December vs. November by country/region (chart 1)Historical Manufacturing PMIs by month:USA (chart 2)Eurozone (chart 3)Germany (chart 4)France (chart 5) Japan (chart 6)
Third-Quarter Global Electronic Supply Chain Growth(Charts 1-4)Here are our “final” results for third-quarter global growth by sector:Composite of 213 global OEMs had sales decrease 0.3 percent in Q3 2020 versus Q3 2019 (chart 1)Growth by sector is given in chart 2Monthly world electronic equipment sales peaked seasonally at a record high in November (chart 3)Printed circuit shipments are likely to be near their seasonal peak (chart 4)Source: Company financial reports analyzed by Custer Consulting Group
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) just raised its regional GDP growth forecasts for 2020 and 2021 (charts 1-3). For the world, the IMF predicts a 4.4 percent global GDP decline this year followed by a 5.2 percent expansion next year.This economic turnaround won’t be easy and is dependent on being guided by good science, political leadership and popular acceptance.For a detailed discussion of the October IMF forecast, visit www.imf.org
Here is my initial, very preliminary estimate of second-quarter world electronic equipment and supply chain revenue growth:Electronic equipment sales declined 9.6 percent globally in Q2 2020 versus Q32 2019 (chart 1)Most electronic equipment sectors contracted (chart 2) with automotive down the most; semiconductor devices and their related capital equipment were more resilientPassive component shipments contracted 6 percent (chart 3)Combined EMS and ODM revenues grew 5.5 percent thanks to ODM strength in Asia (chart 4)Seven large domestically-based EMS companies had a combined 7 percent sales decline in Q2 2020 versus Q2 2019 (chart 5)
Here are some recent global growth estimates by Custer Consulting Group based on our analyses of multiple data sources (as noted):Chart 1 shows our estimate of electronic equipment sales by region through June, based on regional dataChart 2 consolidates the sales in chart 1 to yield monthly total electronic sales; June 2020 was down 4.4 percent versus June 2019 and down 1 percent sequentially versus May 2019World semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment shipment growth peaked on a 3/12 basis in May (chart 3) as the June global PMI leading indicator points to weaker growth short term (excluding normal seasonality)Chart 4 compares the quarterly global unit shipment of smartphones, personal computers, media tablets and digital cameras; recent mobile phone demand has been negatively impacted by the pandemic and economic recession, but computer and media tablet shipments rose due to “work at home” mandatesWorld PCB shipments are beginning their normal seasonal rebound (chart 5)
In 2019, the worldwide contract manufacturing (CM) services market increased nominally — by 2.5 percent in total revenue — resulting in combined EMS and ODM revenue of over $555 billion, an expansion of $13 billion from the previous year, according to New Venture Research. The Worldwide Electronics Manufacturing Services Market – 2020 Edition reports revenue growth from 2014 to 2016 had been essentially flat, but expanded dramatically in 2017 and 2018.
June “flash” PMIs were just released for select counties (chart 1). With the exception of Japan all PMIs rebounded although many still remained in contraction territory (PMI<50):Markit Economics’ USA PMI rose sharply from 39.8 to 49.6 (chart 2).Eurozone PMI also rebounded from 39.4 to 46.9 – indicating manufacturing contraction but at a slower rate (chart 3); according to Markit Economics (chart 4), “Eurozone economic downturn eased markedly for second successive month in June as lockdowns to prevent spread of COVID-19 were further relaxed. Manufacturing output continued to drop due to declining orders, but June saw continued strong improvement in business expectations for the year ahead. Persistent closure of non-essential business, hotels, restaurants, travel and tourism and other consumer-facing sectors, continued to be widely reported”Germany’s PMI improved to 44.6 indicating slower contraction (chart 5) and France moved back into manufacturing expansion at 52.1 (chart 6)Japan slipped further into contraction (chart 7)
The Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers index rose from 39.6 in April to 42.4 in May (chart 1). While this was an improvement, keep in mind that a PMI <50 is still in contraction territory. The rate of manufacturing decline has slowed but manufacturing activity is far from true growth (PMI=50).
(Reuters) – A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers on Wednesday introduced a bill to provide more than $22.8 billion in aid for semiconductor manufacturers, aiming to spur the construction of chip factories in America amid a strategic technology rivalry with China.
The following GDP forecast by world region suggests a tough road ahead for the U.S. and European economies. Asian regions will grow out of the situation at a faster rate than other regions, but the overall outlook for near-term GDP is challenging (see Figure 1).
Passive components makers have reported significant sales results for May despite the long Labor Day holiday in China cutting work hours, with Yageo’s revenues of NT$4.486 billion (US$149.53 million) for the month rising 1% sequentially and almost 40% on year, according to industry sources.